Kelsey Williams

The Looming Threat of Credit Collapse and Deflation

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THREAT OF CREDIT COLLAPSE 

The threat of a credit collapse and subsequent deflation currently outweigh the risks associated with higher inflation. This article explores the threat of a credit collapse and its implications for economies and societies worldwide.

After more than one hundred years of practicing inflation with intent and purpose, the Federal Reserve has backed themselves into a corner. The “dual mandate” objectives claimed by Chair Powell and his predecessors are little more than a smokescreen to hide the Fed’s scrambling efforts to contain the effects of the inflation which it has created over the past century.

In his latest attempt to divert attention away from the Fed, Powell has mentioned the potential negative effects of tariffs on the Fed’s efforts: “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension.”

There should be no doubt that tariffs will be disruptive and harmful to the economy. Tariffs are self-inflicted wounds that have serious negative economic consequences. They do not work as intended or as described by their proponents.

That being said, it is important to consider the vulnerable state of the economy and the markets that existed before tariffs became front-page headlines. The fact of the matter is, that both financially and economically, the United States and the world stood at the edge of a precipice.

If someone pushes me from behind under ordinary circumstances, I might end up on the ground, but, I likely won’t suffer much damage. Then I could gather my thoughts, appraise the situation and stand up again.

What is currently happening is more closely akin to being pushed from behind while standing on one leg at the cliff’s edge. Even if the action were not malicious, the effects of the action cannot be rescinded or modified.

SIGNS OF THE TIMES

Universal credit default happens when individuals, corporations, and countries can no longer sustain the debt they have assumed on a scale that overwhelms ordinary financial and market activity.

This happened in 2008 with education loans, mortgages, and auto loans.  The price of non-performing debt sank into a deep hole, until the government and Federal Reserve embarked on a new experiment of making more and cheaper credit available and buying up the non-performing debt.

Now, almost two decades later, commercial real estate could be the trigger that sends the credit markets into a similar tailspin.

Sometimes, when stock prices decline badly, investors flee to the perceived safety of bonds. Unfortunately, that logic doesn’t work in reverse. If the bond market collapses, stocks will not provide a safe haven from the storm for bondholders. Currently, long-term bond prices (including Treasuries) are down fifty percent from their vaunted perch only three years ago.

As far as stock prices are concerned, we are currently experiencing the fourth decline of serious significance in this century. Previously, the stock market exhibited extreme volatility in 2000-02, 2007-09, and in 2020. While those extremes have not yet manifested this time, they could happen quickly.

We are possibly in the early stages of an asset price collapse. meaning all assets denominated in dollars – stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate – are in danger of huge price declines.

That bad news is made worse because of bank failures. The worst financial and economic events in history were accompanied by bank failures. Bank failures were a common occurrence during the early 1930s and are evidence of the ongoing risks associated with fractional-reserve banking. Today, we have a system of no-reserve banking. There are no minimum reserve requirements for banks. How safe is your money? (see Fractional-Reserve Banking – Elephant In The Room)

DEFLATION 

Deflation is the opposite of inflation; it is a contraction in the supply of money and credit.

The effects of deflation result in fewer currency units (dollars) in circulation and an increase in purchasing power of the remaining units. In other words, your dollars will buy more – not less.

As the deflation takes hold, the prices of goods and services will decline, rather than increase. In and of itself, deflation can be a good thing. However, when deflation is severe enough, the result would be a catastrophic economic depression.

The depression will last longer than can be anticipated as it will take longer for the economy to cleanse itself of the ill effects of Federal Reserve inflation and mismanagement.

This is true even though the Federal Reserve and the government will do everything possible to counter the effects of deflation and depression. Unfortunately, their efforts will be overwhelmed by the tidal wave of financial and economic destruction headed our way.

CONCLUSION

President Trump and his tariffs are deserving of the blowback received. Chair Powell and the Fed deserve to share in the limelight for the decades of horrible financial and economic policies that have brought us to such a vulnerable state of affairs. (also see No Winners When The Inflation Balloon Pops and Liquidity Problems Could Overwhelm Inflation’s Effects)

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED

Inflation Is Created By The Federal Reserve (AUDIO)

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The Federal Reserve is responsible for inflation. This audio dispels any concerns or doubts about other guilty parties or spontaneous events. If the Fed truly wanted to stop inflation dead in its tracks, it could do so in an instant. There are problems associated with that action, though. After listening to this audio (6 minutes), you will know why the Fed will never claim responsibility for its financial crimes and will never purposely stop inflating the supply of money and credit…

 

 

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!

Bare Naked Facts About Fed Independence

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FED INDEPENDENCE

Chair Powell has been particularly vocal about the Fed’s independence lately. His statements are the result of provocation by some, including President Trump, who have called for various actions including an audit of the Federal Reserve, firing the current Chair (Powell), and abolishing the Fed. The calls for action and the inflammatory rhetoric are usually the result of anger and frustration about Fed economic policies, notably the level and direction of interest rates.

Recently, Powell has targeted tariffs as a variable that could hamper the Fed’s ability to accomplish its objectives and fulfill its responsibilities. That ignores how bad the situation was prior to Trump’s election and inauguration. It also is an attempt to deflect blame away from the Fed for its role in causing inflation, destroying the U.S. dollar, and mismanaging the economy for more than a century.

Meanwhile, President Trump can’t wait to “fire Powell” for “ignoring his demands that interest rates be lowered”. He can’t, so his exasperation erupts in vocal condemnation of the Fed chair. If the tariffs are seen as causing economic disaster, Trump can blame Powell for not lowering interest rates.

Standoff.

The argument over Fed independence needs to be considered in proper context. Keep reading…

ORIGIN OF THE FED

The Federal Reserve System was authorized by an act of Congress in 1913. However, it is not a government agency. The Federal Reserve is a privately-owned institution which is comprised of 12 regional banks. The regional banks are owned by various commercial banks – member banks – who hold stock in the Federal Reserve banks. In other words, the Federal Reserve is a bank which is owned by its member banks – a banker’s bank.

The authorization by Congress vested 1) the power to create money and 2) control of the money supply to the Federal Reserve exclusively. In return for Congressional approval, or rather, to induce members of Congress to vote affirmatively for its inception, the principal figures (elite bankers and banking family “royalty”) behind the creation of the Federal Reserve promised (guaranteed) the United States government in a secret meeting that it would never run out of money.

Publicly, the Federal Reserve System was promoted as a ‘non’ – bank institution in deference to the mistrust and generally negative opinions concerning national banks and the banking elite. Many early Americans were wary of the connection between banks and political power, fearing that a central bank would create an elite class that could dictate economic policy and control the nation’s money supply.

PURPOSE OF THE FED

The purpose of the Federal Reserve is to provide a structured system whereby its member banks can create and lend money in perpetuity. The Fed accomplishes this by continually expanding the supply of money and credit.

The Federal Reserve exists for the benefit of the banks and bankers. Its purpose and motivation is not aligned with the general public interest. The Fed’s objective is to facilitate the ongoing creation of money and loans which generate interest income.

WHERE WE ARE NOW

For more than 100 years, the Federal Reserve has pursued a course of intentional inflation which has brought about a series of economic disasters and near-complete destruction of the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power. The effects of Fed inflation caused the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession of 2008-2010. Errant Fed policy has erased more than 99% of the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power.

As traditional financial assets continue to slide down a slippery slope, Trump’s tariffs get blamed for causing much of the carnage. This is realistically appropriate to some degree. But the world economy was standing at the cliff’s edge prior to Trump’s election.

Where we go from here might not be a choice anymore.

CONCLUSION 

It would take an act of Congress t0 alter or change the Federal Reserve’s control over economic policy and the money supply. Do you think a majority of  congressional representatives and senators would vote for a bill that eliminates the guaranteed source of unlimited money which they now spend so freely?

The way I see it, there are several courses of action possible which all lead to the same end result. Here they are…

  1. Fed continues to operate unhampered as is.
  2. Congress passes legislation that abolishes the Federal Reserve
  3. Potential legislation by Congress alters or limits the Fed’s control

Regarding No. 1, we can expect a continuation of dollar depreciation, financial and economic volatility (including recessions and depressions), etc. In other words, more of the same things that have plagued us for the past 112 years under the Fed’s watch care and keeping. Eventually, the end result would be a credit collapse, deflation, and a world-wide depression. This is likely regardless of changes in interest rate policy and the effects of tariffs.

As far as No. 2, abolition of the Federal Reserve would leave a void in money creation and supply which would cripple the world’s economy. The withdrawal symptoms would be horrific. Economies would grind to a halt and a global depression would ensue.

No. 3 presumes a modified approach to reigning in the creature from Jekyll Island. The debate about specifics would increase the uncertainty surrounding this choice and would extend the timeline indefinitely. Regardless of the final version, it would come too late to derail the train of economic terror hurtling towards us now.

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED

Treasury Bond Market Outflows, ChatBot, & Credit Collapse

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TREASURY BOND MARKET OUTFLOWS

A reader of mine who is a financial professional and educator asked about something he heard regarding flow of funds out of U.S. Treasury bonds and into other countries’ government bonds. Reference was made to Europe generally, and Germany specifically. We both wondered about the attraction of other government bonds for investors compared to U.S. Treasury bonds.

Rather than starting my own global search for facts and information, I decided to try something with AI. I assumed it would be faster. It was. It was also lengthy. Below is the complete text of my conversation with ChatBot. My prompts and ChatBot’s responses are identified in bold type. All text from ChatBox is in italics. ChatBox sources include JP Morgan, Schwab, Morgan Stanley, US Bank, Union Bank of Switzerland, Treasury.gov, and Morningstar.

I provide my thoughts and commentary at the end of the conversation…

Kelsey’s Gold Facts: Please explain clearly what is happening and where funds from the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds are being moved. I have heard that one destination might be German bonds (bunds). Is this correct? Or just inflamed speculation? Any other countries?

ChatBox: The current market for U.S. Treasury bonds is experiencing unusual dynamics, with yields rising during economic uncertainty, contrary to their historical role as a safe-haven asset. As confidence in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar wanes, investors are looking for alternative investments. However, there is limited direct information on whether funds from the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds are being moved specifically to German bonds or other countries’ bonds.

Funds from U.S. Treasury bonds could be moving into various asset classes as investors seek safer or more lucrative options:

  • Gold as a Safe Haven: With the instability in Treasuries, gold has seen an increase in value, becoming a more attractive store of value

  • Other Fixed-Income Assets: Investors may be turning to other fixed-income securities, potentially including bonds from stable economies.

Regarding German bonds specifically, there is no direct evidence indicating they are a primary destination for funds withdrawn from U.S. Treasuries. However, European bonds, in general, could be attractive due to their stability and relatively low risk compared to volatile assets.

Historically, countries like China have been significant buyers of U.S. Treasury securities for stability and to manage their forex reserves . However, concerns about the reliability of U.S. Treasuries and potential geopolitical tensions have led to decreased foreign demand, which could lead to a shift in investments.

While there is no clear evidence pointing to German bonds as a specific destination, funds could be moving into:

  • European Debt: Investors might consider European bonds due to their relative stability.
  • Gold and Other Commodities: These have gained attractiveness as safe-haven assets.
  • Other Safe-Haven Currencies and Assets: Such as the euro, if not heavily impacted by European economic instability.
Kelsey’s Gold Facts: What are the fundamental reasons that would make any other government bonds more attractive than U.S. Treasury bonds?
ChatBox: Several fundamental reasons could make other government bonds more attractive than U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty or shifting investor sentiment. Here are some of the key factors: 
  • Central Bank Policies: Monetary policies in other countries, such as lower interest rates or quantitative easing, could lead to attractive bond yields compared to U.S. Treasuries. 
  • Higher Yields: If other government bonds offer higher yields than U.S. Treasuries, they can become more attractive to investors seeking better returns on their investments.
  • Sovereign Ratings: A government with a strong credit rating and low risk of default can attract investors. If a country’s economic outlook improves, its bonds may seem more secure than U.S. Treasuries, especially if the U.S. faces fiscal issues.
  • Stable Economic Environment: Countries with stable political and economic environments may be favored over those perceived as higher risk.
  • Currency Strength: Investors might seek exposure to a stable or strengthening currency. If the US dollar is expected to weaken, foreign bonds may become more attractive. 
  • Inflation Rates: If a country’s inflation rate is lower than that of the U.S., its bonds may offer better real returns. Investors often seek to preserve purchasing power through fixed income.  
  • Diversification: Investors might diversify their portfolios by including bonds from different countries as a hedge against economic instability in the U.S.
  • Market Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions or financial crises in the U.S. could lead investors to seek safer or more appealing bonds elsewhere.  
  • Liquidity Preferences: Some investors may prioritize market liquidity. If bonds from other countries are readily tradable and liquid, they may be more attractive than less liquid Treasury securities.
  • Political Stability: In times of U.S. political uncertainty or instability, foreign governments perceived as more stable may gain traction, leading to increased demand for their bonds.
  • Trade Agreements and Alliances: Bonds from countries involved in supportive trade arrangements may attract investors seeking economic stability.
  • Tax Treatments: Certain government bonds may offer more favorable tax treatments than U.S. Treasuries, appealing to investors sensitive to tax impacts on their returns.
  • Regulatory Landscape: A favorable regulatory environment in another country could attract investment if it enables better growth prospects and less risk.
  • Potential for Growth: Emerging markets may offer greater potential for growth, albeit with higher risks. Bonds from these markets could attract investors looking for higher returns despite the associated risks.

In summary, the attractiveness of government bonds from other countries compared to U.S. Treasury bonds can depend on a complex interplay of factors including yields, credit risk, inflation, market conditions, geopolitical stability, and the economic environment. Each investor’s risk tolerance and investment strategy will influence these preferences.

Kelsey’s Gold Facts: Your responses are theoretical and suppositional in nature. Can you site any specific instances where these factors are currently in play?
ChatBox: Currently, there are several factors influencing the attractiveness of government bonds, including fluctuations in interest rates and yield dynamics. While specific instances where funds are moving from U.S. Treasury bonds to other countries’ bonds, such as German bonds, are not well-documented, some trends and shifts in the bond market can be identified.

  • Higher Yields and Volatility: In recent months, global government bond yields have experienced notable increases. For instance, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose significantly in December 2024, while Germany’s 10-year yield also climbed. This volatility makes other government bonds potentially more attractive if they offer better yields or stability.

  • European Bond Market Performance: European bond markets, including those of Germany and the U.K., have seen favorable performance relative to U.S. Treasuries in 2024. This suggests that investors may find these markets more appealing due to their historical stability and current yield dynamics.

  • Diversification and Global Outlook: As global economic conditions shift, diversification across asset classes and geographies is becoming more attractive. Regions like Europe and Asia are experiencing rallies in their equity markets, driven by sentiment changes and valuation adjustments. This trend could spill over into bond markets as well.

While there is no explicit evidence of a direct shift from U.S. Treasuries to German bonds or similar alternatives, investors are increasingly focused on diversification. This includes moving funds into other developed country bonds where yields are higher or more stable than those offered by U.S. Treasuries.

In terms of specific factors driving investment decisions, higher yields in some markets and concerns about economic stability and inflation in the U.S. are key considerations. The prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates longer than anticipated limits the potential for significant drops in Treasury yields, which could further encourage investors to explore other options.

Overall, while direct evidence of mass shifts from U.S. Treasuries to specific alternative government bonds is limited, market dynamics suggest that investors are exploring safer or higher-yielding investments globally. 

Kelsey’s Gold Facts: If investors are seeking higher yields and stability, which is in line with the “prospect of U.S. Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates for longer than anticipated”, why would they be “further encouraged to explore other options”?
ChatBox: The statement regarding investors being encouraged to explore other options amid the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period may initially seem contradictory. However, several factors can help clarify this dynamic:
Comparative Yield: If U.S. Treasury rates are not rising as quickly as those in other countries, the opportunity cost for holding Treasuries increases. Investors may find more attractive yields elsewhere, prompting them to shift their investments despite the Fed’s rate decisions.
  • Real Returns: If inflation is high, even higher nominal interest rates from the Fed may not be sufficient to provide positive real returns for Treasuries. If investors expect inflation to erode the value of their holdings, they may look for other instruments, including foreign bonds or commodities, that can offer better protection against inflation.
  • Currency Strength: Investors might seek exposure to a stable or strengthening currency. If the US dollar is expected to weaken, foreign bonds may become more attractive. 
  • Inflation Rates: If a country’s inflation rate is lower than that of the U.S., its bonds may offer better real returns. Investors often seek to preserve purchasing power throu
  • Comparative Yield: If U.S. Treasury rates are not rising as quickly as those in other countries, the opportunity cost for holding Treasuries increases. Investors may find more attractive yields elsewhere, prompting them to shift their investments despite the Fed’s rate decisions.
  • Diversification Strategy: In uncertain economic times, investors often seek to diversify their portfolios across different geographies and asset classes to manage risk. If they perceive other government bonds as offering more stability or favorable economic conditions, they may allocate funds there while still holding some U.S. Treasuries.
  • Shifts in Sentiment: Investor sentiment can influence the demand for U.S. Treasuries. If sentiment turns negative toward the U.S. economy or fiscal health, investors might pivot to perceived safer asset classes in other countries, despite the Fed’s rate policies. The bond market’s behavior is often sensitive to news and macroeconomic indicators.
  • Propagation of Trends: As investors begin to move toward other markets for higher yields, this behavior can create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Increased demand for foreign bonds can also lead to tightening spreads and lower yields in those markets, making them relatively more attractive over time.
  • Strategic Allocations: Some investors may take a longer-term view and anticipate changes in economic conditions, such as potential recessions or shifts in monetary policy. They may opt for bonds in countries with a more favorable long-term outlook, even if the current rates in the U.S. seem high.

In summary, while U.S. interest rates might be elevated compared to historical lows, the broader economic context, including factors like inflation, risk perceptions, and the global economic outlook, can encourage investors to seek higher yields and stability in other countries’ bonds. This inclination is further influenced by market dynamics and the desire for portfolio diversification.

Kelsey’s Gold Facts: What are current nominal yields on government bonds from other countries compared to the U.S.?
ChatBox: As of mid-April 2025, here is a comparison of nominal yields on 10-year government bonds from the U.S. and several other key countries:
Country 10-Year Government Bond Yield (Approx.)
United States 4.34%
Germany Around 3.5% – 4.0% (recently climbed by ~28 bps in late 2024)
United Kingdom Slightly below U.S. levels, yields increased by ~33 bps in late 2024, generally in the 3.8%–4.3% range
Canada Similar to Germany, with yields performing well relative to U.S. Treasuries in 2024, near 3.5% to 4.0%
Mexico Higher yields, up by ~42 bps in late 2024, reflecting emerging market risk premiums, generally above 7%
Brazil Substantially higher yields, with a jump of 175 bps in late 2024, often above 8%
China Yields declined by ~36 bps in late 2024, generally lower, around 3% or below in many tenors
Thailand Slight decline by ~4 bps in late 2024, yields generally below 3%
  • U.S. Treasury 10-year yield is about 4.34% with an inverted yield curve (long-term yields lower than short-term yield of 3.86% for 2-year bonds) indicating caution about the long-term economic outlook.
  • German and Canadian bonds have yielded in the 3.5–4.0% range recently and have performed well relative to U.S. Treasuries, making them somewhat appealing alternatives in developed markets.
  • The U.K. gilt market offers yields slightly below or close to those of U.S. Treasuries, boosted by recent increases, making it an interesting option given comparable growth prospects.
  • Emerging market bonds (Mexico, Brazil) offer significantly higher yields, reflecting higher risk and inflation premiums, but are affected by currency volatility and risk appetite.
  • China and Thailand bonds generally have lower yields but have experienced recent declines, signaling different monetary and inflation dynamics in Asia.

In summary, U.S. Treasury yields at around 4.3% remain competitive but do not necessarily dominate yield offerings globally. European government bonds like German bunds and Canadian bonds offer slightly lower but still attractive yields with strong credit quality, while emerging markets present higher yields with increased risk. This yield landscape helps explain why some investors may look beyond U.S. Treasuries for diversification and yield enhancement.

Kelsey’s Gold Facts: Can you cite any evidence which identifies clearly any country or government that issues bonds that are currently more attractive than U.S. Treasury bonds?
ChatBox: Currently, while no single government bond market clearly outperforms U.S. Treasury bonds across both yield and safety, investors are considering alternatives that offer competitive yields and perceived stability. The U.S. Treasury 10-year yield is around 4.34%, and other developed markets are offering yields that are either comparable or slightly lower but with stability benefits.
Country 10-Year Government Bond Yield (Approx.) Credit Rating
United States 4.34% AAA
Germany Around 3.5% – 4.0% AAA
United Kingdom 3.8% – 4.3% AA
Canada Near 3.5% to 4.0% AAA
China Below 3% A (S&P)
Thailand Below 3% A (S&P)

Several factors make certain government bonds attractive alternatives:

  • Germany and Canada: These countries offer yields that are competitive with U.S. Treasuries and have performed well in 2024 relative to the U.S. market. Their stability and creditworthiness make them appealing for risk-averse investors.

  • United Kingdom: The U.K.’s gilt market is interesting due to its yields being closer to those of the U.S., while facing similar growth challenges as the eurozone. This presents an opportunity for investors seeking yield without drastic currency risk compared to the euro.

  • Emerging Markets: Countries like Mexico and Brazil offer significantly higher yields, though these come with higher risks and inflation pressures. These markets may attract investors willing to take on more risk for higher potential returns.

In summary, while U.S. Treasury bonds remain strong in terms of safety and liquidity, other markets like Germany, Canada, and the U.K. offer competitive yields with stability, making them attractive for diversification and yield enhancement strategies. Emerging markets provide higher yields but with increased risk. (End Of Conversation)

SUMMARY  

ChatBot has provided lots of information and presented logical-sounding arguments in favor of other countries’ government bonds as alternatives to U.S. Treasury bonds. The logic, however, is flawed due to circular reasoning and faulty assumptions.

It tends to provide theoretical assumptions as evidence but cannot provide any material facts or information in answer to my simple prompts. My overall impression is that rather than responding with an answer to the prompt, it tries to impress with an overload of information that does not answer the question. It feels like what you might expect from most politicians at a debate.

Some specific examples of concern are 1) ChatBot’s answer to my prompt about investors seeking higher yield and stability and 2) the answer to my prompt re: other government bonds that might be more attractive. In both cases, ChatBot failed to provide any consistent corroboration of its earlier statements which had prompted my questions.

Finally, ChatBot claims “other developed markets are offering yields that are either comparable (to U.S. Treasuries) or slightly lower but with stability benefits”. I’m not sure what is meant by “stability benefits” of the other countries in the table (see above) as compared to U.S. Treasury bonds. The implication is that stability is compensation for those countries lower bond yields when compared to U.S. Treasury bonds.

Yet, U.S. Treasury bonds have the highest yield and the highest credit rating of all the government bonds listed. So, why look elsewhere?

There seems to be no available evidence to support conjecture about specific destinations, including German bonds, for the outflow of funds from the U.S. Treasury bond market.

FINAL THOUGHTS 

As investors seek shelter from the financial storm, they will  look for alternatives. It is absurd to think, however, that other governments’ bonds or currencies are potential alternatives to U.S. Treasury bonds or the dollar. If the credit market collapses, everyone will feel the pain.

If the U.S. dollar collapses, other currencies won’t survive. All fiat would go up in smoke.

Holding German Bunds or other fiat currency-denominated investments won’t provide a better or safer alternative. Like it or not, bruised and battered, the U.S. dollar is still the currency of last resort. (also see Treasury Bonds – Last Week’s Big Winner; This Week’s Big Loser)

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED

U.S. Treasury Bonds – Last Week’s Big Winner; This Week’s Big Loser

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 U.S. Treasury Bonds turned about face and dropped more than 3% in Monday’s trading. The huge reversal and decline wiped out all of last week’s increase which I referred to in my previous article…

“…the big winner, both relatively speaking (compared to everything else) and in absolute terms. Bond prices began rising sharply as early as Monday afternoon and finished the week with peak prices up 4% around mid-day on Friday.” 

By mid-day Wednesday, U.S. Treasury bonds were down more than 8% from their peak level last Friday. Then, in order to thoroughly confuse everyone, bond prices rallied sharply by more than 3%, closing the trading day with a small gain.

What is going on in the bond market? Before trying to answer that question, let’s look at a chart (bigcharts.marketwatch.com) of TLT (iShares Long-term Treasury Bond ETF)…

The sharp increase in bond prices actually began on Friday, March 28th. The total increase from Friday (28th) to Friday (4th) was more than 5%. If you are the least bit familiar with bond prices, you know that that is a big deal.

Given the panic state of most other markets last week, it seemed reasonable to attribute bond market strength to the oft-cited “flight to safety”. That may be so, but how does one explain such a swift reversal as that which occurred Monday? The question requires more than a superficial answer since stocks, while quite volatile, did not provide any signs that investors were in a rush to get back in the pool.

Then Wednesday happened. With President Trump’s forbearance on implementation of the latest tariffs, everything (stocks, gold and gold stocks, silver, and bonds) went up.

A strong up move in stocks on high volume would be reasonably supportive of arguments that last week’s action in the markets was a one-off and that the flight to safety was over. Stocks did not provide that signal Monday. If investors are now convinced that the ‘all clear” signal has been given, why did bonds suddenly rally today. Are bond investors confidently expecting lower interest rates?

BOND MARKET BACKTALK

Right from the outset of the Fed’s policy change re: interest rates last September, the bond market failed to confirm that rates were headed lower.  Here is a statement from my article Backtalk From The Bond Market published in January 2025…
“U.S. Treasury bond prices have now declined 16% since the Fed announced a reversal in its interest rate policy and the first rate cut last September. The latest weakness comes in the face of a second rate cut, so it begs a repeat of the question I posed last October…
“Why are bond rates rising at the very time the Fed is trying to move interest rates lower?” (Fed Cuts Rates But Bond Rates Are RISING)” 
Funny thing is that bond prices then began rising in mid-January. The correspondingly lower interest rates seemed to put the bond market back in the Fed’s camp. Last week’s strong action was the culmination of three months of higher bond prices. You can see this on the chart below…

After looking further at the chart immediately above, one might conclude that bond prices have peaked on an intermediate basis. That next move lower could come with another broad selloff in stocks and other assets. In that context, maybe today’s reversal to the upside isn’t significant. Time will tell.

Let’s look at one more chart…

The bond market has been declining for five years since 2020. Whether you view the action in the bond market for the past two weeks or for the past few months, in the long-term perspective illustrated in the chart just above, it is difficult to see much that indicates hope for sustaining higher bond prices and correspondingly lower interest rates.

To the contrary, it is a graphic picture of Fed Chair Powell’s long standing proclamation that interest rates will remain higher for longer.

CONCLUSION 

Further declines in stocks might not provide the fuel for higher bond prices. The flight-to-safety argument could be inapplicable.

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED

Market Madness – Top Seeds Eliminated

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Market Madness trumps March Madness for now. Here is a recap of the latest action…

FIRST ROUND SURPRISES 

Stocks: Some are surprised at this; some are not. The major averages are down 11-12% over the past two days alone. That might not seem so bad, but generally, investors were likely not expecting another bath at this time. The loss was especially hurtful for the tech-heavy NASDAQ. Cumulative losses for the volatile index since mid-February are -23%.

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A Comprehensive Overview of Tariffs

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WHAT IS A TARIFF?

At its core, a tariff is a tax levied by a government on goods and services imported into the country. The primary purpose of tariffs is to generate revenue for the government.  Tariffs are sometimes used with the intention to protect domestic industries from foreign competition by making imported goods more expensive. This protectionist strategy aims to encourage consumers to buy locally-produced products, ultimately bolstering the national economy.

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Is Inflation Necessary?

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IS INFLATION NECESSARY?

The straight answer is “no”. The clarity of my emphasis is prompted by a friend’s reaction to my previous article “No Winners When The Inflation Balloon Pops”.

In the article, I said “A certain amount of inflation is necessary to keep things from cascading downward.” My friend exclaimed quite vociferously that “INFLATION IS NEVER NECESSARY!” He’s right. Both he and I shared similar concerns a number of years ago when one of our monetary heroes, Milton Friedman, made similar comments about the necessity of inflation. To us, it seemed like a cop out; and, it still does.

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Price vs Value – Will Gold Hit $3460?

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PRICE VS VALUE

Can you explain the difference between price and value? Most investors can’t. Neither can most analysts. A few years ago, some people were caught up in the NFT (non-fungtable token) craze. Try explaining price and value as it applies to that former “next big thing”.

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Gold Stocks – Fantasy Vs Reality

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GOLD STOCKS – FANTASY 

“There is more money to be made in gold stocks compared to gold because gold stocks benefit from a leverage factor that potentially produces gains more favorable than holding gold itself.” 

At the end of 2023, the cost to mine gold was estimated at $1342 oz. (World Gold Council, Tomlinson; 16May2024). With gold at the time somewhere near $1950 oz., the implied gross margin was $600 per ounce. As the gold price rises, it is assumed that the mining costs would remain relatively stable, or at least rise more slowly, and not as much on a quantitative basis.

Hence, further increases in the gold price would translate to higher proportionate gains to the mining company on future gold sales. At $255o oz., the expected margin increases to $1200 per ounce. In other words, as the price of gold increases, the margin per ounce continues to rise, thus increasing potential profits.

In the above example, a doubling of the profit margin ($600-1200 oz) might be expected to fuel higher stock prices for mining companies that would far surpass the profits to be earned by investing in gold in its finished form and holding it for a relatively smaller gain of 30% ($600/$1950).

In addition, “because gold mining stocks are currently underpriced compared to gold bullion, the potential profits are even greater than might be expected otherwise”.

GOLD STOCKS – REALITY  

Below is a chart (source) which shows the month-end ratio of the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI) compared to the price of gold bullion back to 1996. The higher the ratio, the more favorable has been the performance of gold mining stocks; the smaller the ratio, the more favorable has been the performance of gold bullion…

HUI to Gold Ratio 1996-2025

In December of 2000, the gold price was at $271 oz. From that point over the next 3 years, the gold price increased to $406 oz., a gain of fifty percent. Gold stocks performed even better, rising six-fold over the same time period. The net out-performance of gold stocks is shown on the chart above with the gold stocks-to-gold ratio rising from .15 to more than .60.

Alas, that three-year period of super success for gold stocks compared to gold was followed by 22 years of declining performance, thus far. The current gold stocks-to-gold ratio is .11, just slightly above the .10 mark touched in 2024, and prior to that in 2015.

The reality of the decline in the ratio from .60 down to .10 is exacerbated by the fact that not only are gold stocks underperforming gold bullion on a long term basis, they are net losers over the past 14 years, even in the face of a sharply higher gold price. See the chart (source) below…

Since the peaks for both gold and gold stocks in 2011, the gold price has increased by more than 50% ($1900 – 2900); whereas, gold stock prices have declined by 50%. 

As far as gold stocks being undervalued relative to gold bullion, well… of course they are. If they continue to underperform so drastically as has been seen, then how could they not be undervalued?  Those who claim that gold stocks are undervalued mean that their prices have not gone up as much as expected, and, therefore, should increase substantially to make up for their failure to meet expectations. Good luck with that.

CONCLUSION 

There are a several reasons to not own or invest in gold stocks, except on a short-term, very speculative basis. They are underfunded operations (in most cases) subject to a host of external risk factors including labor strikes, shut downs, nationalization, etc. The biggest risk factor for most investors is the continuation of historical long-term underperformance, coupled with the risk of outperformance on the downside.

The biggest declines in gold stocks come when gold and/or stocks in general fall precipitously. That has been shown clearly with gold stocks versus gold 1980-2000; and with gold stocks versus stocks in general (most recently in 2020 and 2022).

Earlier this year, I included gold stocks on my list of five investments to avoid in 2025. The reason for that warning is that I believe the risks outweigh the potential rewards. I still do.

If anything has changed, it is that the risks are greater now than at the time (December 29, 2025) I wrote the article.

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED