"Everything you need to know about gold"
GOLD PRICE, INFLATION, DOLLAR COLLAPSE
Expectations for gold to move higher in price are often tied to worsening inflation and a possible collapse in the U.S. dollar.
That sounds logical and there is historical precedent to support such expectations; but, some clarification is necessary first.
DEFINITION OF INFLATION
Inflation is the debasement of money by governments and central banks. The inflation is intentional and all governments inflate and destroy their own currencies.
The emphasis on “NOT” in the title of this article is critical to a better understanding of what inflation is – and isn’t. We hear all the time: “Inflation rose sharply last month as consumer prices increased by .6%”, or something similar.
We also hear that higher prices themselves are a cause of inflation. Example…
END OF INFLATION IS INEVITABLE
At first, the statement above may seem counterintuitive; especially in light of the ongoing increase in the cost of goods and services experienced recently that seem to have no limit.
Besides, inflation never stops. All governments, with the help of central banks, intentionally inflate and destroy their own currencies. There are changes in momentum, of course, but an ever-expanding supply of money and credit leads to continual loss in purchasing power of the currency (i.e., U.S. dollar).
GOLD, INFLATION, AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE
Below are my comments and answers to various questions about gold, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. They are “for the record” so to speak, and are meant to be taken literally and specifically…
CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION
We hear the term used often, and I’m reasonably certain that most of those who use it think they understand it; but, is the term itself a correct expression for what is meant?
IF INFLATION IS SO BAD…
Recent headlines have many people despairing over inflation.
A couple of recent examples such as “Inflation Is The Worst It’s Been In Forty Years” and “Consumer Prices Are Rising Rapidly” were followed by “High Inflation Is Here To Stay”.
Just how bad is it? Let’s take a look.
SIMPLE FACTS ABOUT INFLATION
When most people talk about inflation, they are usually referring to the higher prices they pay for goods and services. That is not inflation.
Most of what passes for explanations of inflation and its causes are convoluted and confusing. It is like looking into a pond of muddy water and trying to ascertain what lurks blow the surface.
Below are some facts about inflation that should help clarify things:
The higher price for gold over time reflects the loss in purchasing power of the US dollar. The loss in the dollar’s purchasing power is an effect of inflation.
Over the past century, the US dollar has lost approximately ninety-nine percent of its purchasing power. The loss in purchasing power is reflected in a gold price that has increased one-hundred fold ($20.67 oz. x 100 = $2067 oz).
The effect of deflation on the gold price is different. To be more accurate, the effect of deflation on gold’s price is opposite to the effect resulting from inflation.
Yes, even gold is subject to inflation.
Most gold bugs think that a gold standard will solve our inflation problems. While it is true that gold acts as a restraint on governments’ and central banks’ desire to create and control money, it does not mean that inflation cannot happen just because gold is the money in circulation. The United States and most of the rest of the world, at one time or other, operated on a gold standard. In other words, gold was the money of choice.
Since gold cannot be fabricated (fabricate – to invent or concoct (something), typically with deceitful intent) into existence, the debasement of the money supply cannot be accomplished with the same ease as central banks enjoy today.
Several centuries ago, independent rulers might clip coins and melt the clippings down, recasting them in the usual fashion. This meant that there were coins with lesser metal content circulating with other coins that had not been altered. All were presumed to be of equal value.
Gradually, people became more aware of what was by then obvious – the two types of coins in circulation were not of equal value.
Also, there were more coins in circulation. The total money supply had increased considerably and the effects of inflation were apparent. Higher prices for most goods and services were taking their toll.
In order to allay the fears and suspicions of the general population, the rulers turned to dilution. All coins were cast and issued with a lesser proportion of precious metal (gold or silver) and a larger percentage of base metal (copper, nickel, etc).
The coins appeared to be identical, but further inflation was easier now; just reduce the precious metal content and increase the content of base metal in each coin. (see History Of Gold As Money)
GOLD, INFLATION, AND MANSA MUSA
Mansa Musa is considered by some historians to be the single most wealthy individual in history and his wealth is estimated to be the inflation-adjusted equivalent of four hundred billion US dollars in today’s money.
The following is from Wikipedia:
Musa made his pilgrimage (to Mecca) between 1324–1325. His procession reportedly included 60,000 men, including 12,000 slaves who each carried 4 lb (1.8 kg) of gold bars and heralds dressed in silks who bore gold staffs, organized horses, and handled bags. Musa provided all necessities for the procession, feeding the entire company of men and animals. Those animals included 80 camels which each carried 50–300 lb (23–136 kg) of gold dust. Musa gave the gold to the poor he met along his route. Musa not only gave to the cities he passed on the way to Mecca, including Cairo and Medina, but also traded gold for souvenirs. It was reported that he built a mosque every Friday.
But Musa’s generous actions inadvertently devastated the economy of the regions through which he passed. In the cities of Cairo, Medina, and Mecca, the sudden influx of gold devalued the metal for the next decade. Prices on goods and wares greatly inflated. To rectify the gold market, on his way back from Mecca, Musa borrowed all the gold he could carry from money-lenders in Cairo, at high interest. This is the only time recorded in history that one man directly controlled the price of gold in the Mediterranean.
The “sudden influx of gold” constituted an increase in the supply of money which resulted in “prices on goods and wares greatly inflated”. This is a classic, historical example of inflation.
The economies of the regions that Musa visited were relatively industrious with a reasonably stable economy. And the gold which Musa carried with him was not, for the most part, circulating as part of the money supply in the world at that time. In a short period of time, large amounts of gold (i.e. money) were put in circulation. With more money available, more aggressive bidding for various “goods and wares” drove prices for those items higher.
The ‘higher prices’ for goods and wares was an inverse reflection of the loss of purchasing power of the money (gold) in circulation.
Gold is not immune to inflation. This is not an indictment of gold. But it does serve to illustrate the vulnerability of money regarding the consequences of inflation.
Mansa Musa acted benevolently as an individual. His actions and the effects were basically a one-time event.
On the other hand, inflation, as practiced by the United States Government and the Federal Reserve, is intentional and perpetual – over one hundred years old and still going strong. The effects of those efforts are unpredictable and volatile. And the value of our money continues to erode.
Whereas Musa acted immediately to help alleviate the problem that his actions created by borrowing “all the gold he could carry from money-lenders in Cairo, at high interest”, the Federal Reserve purposely inflicts harm on the monetary system by continually expanding the supply of money and credit. This distorts every monetary measure of value we are inclined to rely on, and at some point, the system will implode.
The problems arising from Musa’s actions were systemic and not related to the ‘form’ of money in use. And those problems were limited because the money supply was limited. No one could produce more money (i.e., gold) by printing it.
That is why governments hate gold. It is a restraint on their free-spending, expansionary policies. Even the example of Mansa Musa does not diminish the role gold plays in this regard, or its rightful place as real money, original money. (also see The Gold Price And Inflation)
Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!
INFLATION OR DEFLATION
The debate continues but not much has been said that clarifies the issue for ordinary investors. What follows in this article should help.
Inflation is the debasement of money by government and central banks. The Federal Reserve and all central banks practice inflation by expanding the supply of money and credit continuously and intentionally.
This debasement of the money results in effects that are harmful and unpredictable. One of these effects of inflation is an unquantifiable loss of purchasing power in the money itself.