In a previous article, New Closing Lows For Gold And Silver, I said the following…
“Irrespective of all the 1) fundamentals, 2) proclamations about what is different now, and 3) justifiable arguments and expectations for much higher prices, etc., the price action in gold and silver, coupled with the attitudes and behavior of investors, leads me to the conclusion that $5500 for gold and $120 for silver are major price peaks and are not likely to be exceeded for several years.”
Last Friday’s action in both gold and silver adds at least a modicum of confirmation to the above statement.
In New York, gold closed at $4,328 oz. and silver at $67.72. The prior closing lows occurred on March 20, 2026, with gold at $4,490 oz. and silver at $67.69 oz. Those were new closing lows for both metals at the time, following the January 2026 peak prices. Silver’s price at $67.72 today was not a new closing low, but it resulted from a one-day drop of more than 8% compared to gold’s rather modest 3% decline.
In the face of possible reasons (Iran conflict, inflation fears, etc.) why gold and silver prices should be going up, the price action of both metals since late January tells a different story. Logic and reasoning based on apparent fundamentals probably won’t help at this point.
As it is, however astonishing and ridiculous the ride up was in 2025, the ride down in 2026 could be even more so.
DOWN AND DIRTY
How low could gold and silver go?
It all depends. After peaking at $850 in 1980, the gold price declined to $250. A similar percentage decline now could take gold as low as $1620. That probably won’t happen unless there is a full-scale financial collapse and economic depression resulting in deflation, a possibility that should not be ignored.
From its peak near $1,900 in 2011, gold declined to $1,050. Something similar now could take gold just under $3,000 at $2,970. That seems reasonably possible and would still leave the gold price fifty percent higher than its breakout point at $2,000.
Other than that, a decline to about $2,500 is not unreasonable.
CONCLUSION
Until proven otherwise, gold and silver are both in major price downtrends that can last for many more months, even years. Key descriptive terms that are applicable include magnitude, volatility, and confusion.