The money supply continues to fall, but investors don’t seem to care. They are convinced that their success is connected to a potential Fed shift in interest rate policy. Nothing else seems to matter. That is partially attributable to the fact that, as the financial markets continue their upward trajectory, less and less attention is paid to the deteriorating economy. And, the deterioration is getting worse.
Economy
System Liquidity Risk – Cash Is Preferred & Appreciated
SYSTEM LIQUIDITY IS THE BIGGER RISK – “CASH IS PREFERRED AND APPRECIATED”
There is quite a bit of debate right now about whether inflation’s effects will worsen again soon; or, whether the inflation threat has been minimized and “disinflation” will prevail. Don’t look now, but the specter of a liquidity crisis is looming in the background.
The situation is such that a liquidity crisis of epic proportion might overtake all of us in our arguments about the quantity and extent of inflation’s effects. My concern was heightened this past weekend when I drove to a small, local restaurant to pick up a take-out order.
Gold Continues 3-Year Decline
GOLD CONTINUES DECLINE
Gold continued its downward path this past week and all but confirmed that lower prices are ahead. Below is a chart of price action dating back to the peak in 2020…
Gold Prices (inflation-adjusted) 2020-23
The Danger Of Trade Tariffs
The renewed danger of trade tariffs by various presidential candidates is a clear and present danger to free trade and the world economy.
In today’s globalized world, trade is the lifeblood of economies; connecting nations and fostering prosperity. However, there is a contentious tool that is often used in international trade relations: tariffs.
Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods, ostensibly to protect domestic industries or gain a competitive edge. They are sometimes recommended and promoted by those who think they have identified an “unfair advantage” existing between trade partners.
Even though politicians say otherwise, tariffs are guaranteed to produce net negative results that are much worse than any short-term theoretical benefits.
ECONOMIC DISRUPTION
The primary danger of trade tariffs is the economic disruption they can cause.
When tariffs are imposed, they disrupt the equilibrium. Domestic industries might benefit in the short term, but at what cost?
Since the prices of imported goods rise due to tariffs, consumers end up paying more for the things they want to buy.
Trade tariffs often trigger a chain reaction, leading to retaliatory measures from affected countries. Full-blown trade wars can result…
“America’s last major trade war happened after imposition of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which increased 900 import tariffs from 40-48%. It was supposed to support U.S. farmers whose land had been devastated by the Dust Bowl, but it resulted in higher food prices for Americans who were already crippled by the Great Depression.
America’s trade partners at the time hit back with their own tariffs and global trade fell by 65%, worsened the depression, and contributed to the beginning of World War II.
After Smoot-Hawley, the country suffered tremendously. The general public had little understanding of tariffs or trade agreements.” Tariffs And Trade Wars… by Anna Kucirkova
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SMALL BUSINESS
Small businesses bear the brunt of trade tariffs. Without the resources to absorb the increased costs imposed by tariffs, They struggle to compete with larger companies that have more significant financial reserves.
Moreover, the uncertainty created by trade tariffs can deter small businesses from growing and expanding, stifling growth and harming the overall economy in the long run.
INEFFICIENT RESOURCE ALLOCATION
Trade tariffs can distort the allocation of resources within an economy. When protectionist measures artificially support certain industries through tariffs, it can lead to inefficiencies.
Resources can flow to industries that are protected rather than those that are genuinely competitive.
This misallocation of resources hinders economic growth and productivity. It may also delay the necessary transitions to more sustainable industries, as resources are tied up in less efficient sectors.
CONCLUSION
Regardless of the intentions of the countries involved, and irrespective of who levies the first assessment (penalty), tariffs and other protectionist trade measures come with unintended consequences which outweigh exponentially any perceived benefits. In addition, they hinder cooperation on other global issues.
In short, they do not work. Historically, they have always failed – despite the near-sighted promises and illogic of the politicians.
It is no different this time. Beating up on China won’t solve any problems. As bad as things appear to be economically for both the United States and China, expect them to get worse if either country takes action.
Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!
Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!