Apparently investors don’t tire of hearing the same old thing; and their advisors willingly provide the same questionable advice: “The best way to play this new bull market in gold is to buy gold stocks” or something to that effect. Are gold stocks a better choice than golditself? Let’s find out…
Gold
Gold vs. Silver – Absolutely No Comparison
GOLD VS. SILVER
In the five months between March and August this year, the price of silver increased from a fourteen-year low of $11.77 per ounce to a seven-year high of $29.26. That is a whopping gain of one hundred sixty-three percent.
Meanwhile, gold’s price rose from its low of $1472 per ounce to a recent high of $2061. That represents a gain of forty percent, which is certainly a handsome number. Nevertheless, silver’s performance outshone gold by a ratio of four-to-one.
However, five months doesn’t tell the whole story. For those who were and are, hopeful that this is just the beginning of silver’s day in the sun, be warned. Looking at the bigger picture historically, silver can’t hold a candle to gold.
Goldman Sachs Gold; Buffett Sacks Goldman;
GOLDMAN SACHS, BUFFETT AND GOLD…
In late July, during an interview with CNBC, the chief investment officer of private wealth management at Goldman Sachs made the following statement:
“Our view is that gold is only appropriate if you have a very strong view that the U.S. dollar is going to be debased. We don’t have that view…” Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani
Is Ms. Mossavar-Rahmani not aware that the U.S. dollar has already been debased by ninety-nine percent? And, that gold at $2000 per ounce (a one-hundred fold increase from $20 per ounce) already reflects that debasement?
Federal Reserve vs. Judy Shelton And Gold
FEDERAL RESERVE VS. JUDY SHELTON
Those in favor of Judy Shelton’s approval by Congress, pursuant to her nomination to the Federal Reserve Board Of Governors, should not be surprised by the torrent of criticism directed at her.
A letter published and signed by former Federal Reserve officials and staffers called on the Senate to reject her nomination, stating that “Ms. Shelton’s views are so extreme and ill-considered as to be an unnecessary distraction from the tasks at hand…”
$10000 Gold – Or A Triple Top?
Predictions for a $10,000 gold price are based on seemingly sound fundamentals and logic; but the fundamentals are incorrect and presented in unrealistic context. Here are some things to keep in mind when you see any predictions for the price of gold.
MMT And Gold
ABOUT MMT AND GOLD
According to MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), there are “four essential requirements that qualify a national currency as sovereign”.
Those four requirements include:
- the National government chooses a money of account in which the currency is denominated;
- the National government imposes obligations (taxes, fees, fines, tribute, tithes) denominated in the chosen money of account;
- the National government issues a currency denominated in the money of account, and accepts that currency in payment of the imposed obligations; and
- if the National government issues other obligations against itself, these are also denominated in the chosen money of account, and payable in the national government’s own currency.
We listed the above requirements and talked about ‘sovereign currencies’ in the article MMT – Variation On A Theme.
But, there is a fifth (important) requirement regarding MMT and a National government which issues a sovereign currency. That requirement is stated quite clearly by L. Randall Wray, who is one of the leading spokespersons in behalf of MMT:
Gold And Rip Van Winkle
GOLD AND RIP VAN WINKLE
The “Rip Van Winkle Caper” was Episode No. 60 in the original Twilight Zone television series. It first aired in April 1961.
The show centered on the actions of four thieves who put themselves into suspended animation for 100 years, with the intention of waking to the prospect of enjoying, without concern, the spoils of their recent criminal actions.
The “spoils” happened to be one million dollars in gold bullion (bars) which they had recently misappropriated, i.e., stolen.
The entire plan was orchestrated by one of the men, who hired the others to perform specific tasks which depended on the execution of their respective and infamous talents. Now, they were in a cave located somewhere in the desert in the southwestern United States.
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve
GOLD MARKET MANIPULATION
Some gold bulls have bought in heavily to the argument that gold price suppression has been an ongoing activity for years, even decades. Supposedly, trading in the gold market is manipulated in ways that depress the market price for gold.
Assertions are made that the manipulation takes place in a shroud of secrecy; and the unexpected lower prices for gold, or prices that don’t meet wildly bullish expectations, are cited as evidence of conspiratorial activity.
The claim is made that the price of gold would be much higher if this manipulative trading activity were exposed, acknowledged, and prohibited. But…
Does Demand For Gold Send Its Price Higher?
DOES DEMAND FOR GOLD SEND ITS PRICE HIGHER?
Gold is original money. As such, it is the measure of value for everything else.
Gold was money before the US dollar and other paper currencies. All paper currencies are substitutes for gold, i.e., real money.
So, how much is money worth? Money is worth what you can buy with it. In my article A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold, I compared the cost to purchase bread and gasoline over the past one hundred years using US dollars vs. gold.
The article illustrates the single reason that separates gold from all other forms of money: gold is a store of value; nothing else is.
Gold – Bullish Or Bearish?
GOLD – BULLISH OR BEARISH?
What does it mean to say that one is “bullish” on gold? Or “bearish”? Or, more simply, what is a bull or a bear?
“A bull is an investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry is poised to rise. Investors who adopt a bull approach purchase securities under the assumption that they can sell them later at a higher price. Bulls are optimistic investors who are attempting to profit from the upward movement of stocks, with certain strategies suited to that theory. …James Chen, Investopedia
According to the definition, then, being bullish on gold is an indication that an investor can optimistically purchase gold and expect to sell it later at a higher price for a profit.