Silver

After more than one full week of trading, silver has failed to break above $60 and stay above it. In morning trading overseas (10pm NY), silver is down 2.46% at $58.28, less than one dollar above its recent closing low of $57.30.

Billy Ward and the Dominos recorded a song in 1955 called “Can’t Do Sixty No More“. It was a follow-up to their big hit “Sixty Minute Man”, released several years earlier in 1951…

Silver, as it has done in the past, has lost considerably more (twice as much) on the downside than gold since their respective peaks earlier this year. The silver spot price is down 50%, while gold is down merely 25%.

I expect the gap to widen as both metals continue to decline. The lower the eventual bottom(s), the worse it will be for silver.

HOW BAD CAN IT GET FOR SILVER? 

Pretty bad. After both metals peaked in 2011, silver lost more than 70% over the next five years, dropping from $49.00 to $14.00. The decline in gold was comparatively smaller at 45%, dropping from $1900 to $1050.

After gold began to climb the price ladder higher, silver struggled and eventually fell as low as $12 in April 2020, a decline of 76% from its 2011 high. Even at its concurrent low point, gold was up almost 30% from its low of $1050 several years earlier.

In 1980, the price of silver fell from $48 to $5.70 in less than two years. The decline of 88% was much worse than gold, which dropped from $850 to $290 for a loss of 66%.

Silver’s case worsened after that. Its price dropped as low as $3.57 ten years later, for a cumulative loss of 93%.

WHERE’S THE BOTTOM? 

We don’t know. But I expect the selling to accelerate, and it could take silver as low as $30 oz. That would represent a 50% decline from its current price and a cumulative decline of 75% from its peak price in January 2026 at $120. 

To whatever extent the decline in the silver price continues, it will be worse than that for gold. If you own gold, though, that should not make you happy. Look for gold at $3000 oz. on the downside. 

(also see Silver Surfers Hit By Killer Wave and New Closing Low For Gold – Again)

After an absolutely awesome crest, the silver wave has collapsed. In surfing vernacular, the action is referred to as a plunger –  “Plungers occur when the wave collapses in a short period of time. The energy release is sudden and can be highly dangerous.” (https://powerboatand rib.com)

Here is a photo (courtesy of Kitco) that depicts the damage done thus far…

This evening, at 8:49 pm in New York, the bid price for spot silver touched $56.99. More damage could be ahead, as the potential for spillers exists, which can release energy more gradually but still in a negative fashion.

GOLD BOAT CAPSIZES

Heavy damage was inflicted on others in the immediate vicinity of the killer wave. A large boat of gold traders was capsized, but reports indicate there are fewer casualties and the damage, while heavy,  appears less severe than that suffered by the silver surfers…

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY 

Both silver and gold are in the throes of an unwinding that is mostly attributable to a reversal of previous excesses. When you ask someone about the fundamentals for either of the two metals, the common answer includes lip service to snippets about gaps in consumption vs. supply, the Fed and interest rates, revaluations (repricing) to “absorb” debt loads, etc.

Unfortunately for those who bought at higher prices, those same “fundamentals” aren’t keeping the sinking ship afloat. Talking about them now might assuage hurt feelings after the fact, but it doesn’t restore price losses of 30-50 percent.

Investors are price-conscious and fickle. They are usually not interested in value. They want to know when the price of something is going up, and by how much. Sometimes they want to know the reasoning, i.e., why. The ‘why’ is mostly an afterthought. Usually, ‘why’ enters the conversation after the price goes down when it was expected to go up.

That is when investors and their advisors start talking a lot more about fundamentals. Since the fundamentals they talk about don’t always apply to gold and silver, whatever logic they use tends to be faulty because it is based on incorrect assumptions. This leads to unrealistic expectations.

Some of those unrealistic expectations were fulfilled, albeit temporarily, when silver surpassed $100, and gold exceeded $5000. The aftermath can sometimes reverse the entire excess of those unrealistic expectations.

How much of silver’s leap from $30 to $120 in 9 months was unrealistic? (see Do The Fundamentals Justify $100 Silver?) How much of the gold price increase from $3500 to $5500 in 5 months was unrealistic? (see  New Closing Low For Gold – Again)

Spot gold closed Friday in New York at $4490, and spot silver closed at $67.69. Both prices were new closing lows for the two metals. See the charts below, courtesy of Kitco…

Both gold and silver peaked earlier this year and within 24 hours of those peaks, both metals experienced serious price implosions. The respective lows of close to $4600 for gold and $72 for silver occurred on February 2nd, 2026. At their worst points, the damage amounted to a 15% loss for gold and a 40% loss for silver – in one day! (see Silver Price Implosion – What About The Fundamentals?)

Both prices held up until Friday (March 20, 2026). After two months of consolidation, any technical support appears to have given way. That cannot be a good sign if you are expecting a quick turnaround to the upside and much higher prices. Gold actually did run back up to its old high on the back of concerns about the war with Iran; however, it has lost a considerable amount of air in the past week.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY 

There is a great deal of posturing about the “fundamentals” for both gold and silver. This is meant to assuage and comfort those who have seen a large portion of their metals values disappear – 19% for gold and 44% for silver in short period of time. It is also intended to justify previous predictions of much higher prices for both gold and silver.

There have been various attempts to downplay the significance of the declines. After all, silver had quadrupled in price (up 300%) after just nine months. Is it really so bad that it declined  “only 44 percent” after such a stellar run? The depressing reality of the math should startle anyone awake who might be sleeping – if you owned silver on January 29th when it peaked at $120 oz., you have lost nearly half of your money in less than two months.

In other words, $100,000 in silver at its January peak is now worth $56,000. That might not matter to you if you are in at $25 oz., but another halving of the silver price would erase most of your profits. Will you be able to hold on for the “long term” if silver drops to $25 or lower?

FINAL THOUGHTS

As far as gold and silver prices are concerned, I think we are seeing something quite similar to 1980.

Irrespective of all the 1) fundamentals, 2) proclamations about what is different now, and 3) justifiable arguments and expectations for much higher prices, etc., the price action in gold and silver coupled with the attitudes and behavior of investors leads me to the conclusion that $5500 for gold and $120 for silver are major price peaks and are not likely to be exceeded for several years. (also see Gold vs Silver – Gold Still Wins)