Gold

Gold – Nothing More, Nothing Less, Nothing Else

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GOLD – NOTHING MORE

Gold is real money; nothing more. That is a hard pill for some investors and advisors to swallow. Actually, it is the second part of the statement that raises the most concern.

More than just a few people will readily affirm their belief that gold is real money. Beyond that, though, there is a tendency to get carried away with descriptions and analyses regarding “fundamentals” for gold.

Those fundamentals are many and varied; but they have nothing to do with gold or its price.

As the cumulative loss in purchasing power of the US dollar becomes more apparent, and as the price of gold continues to rise, more people take notice.

Investors and consumers are price conscious; which is fine. The problem is that most of them confuse price vs. value.

The only reason the price of gold goes up is to reflect the loss in purchasing power of the US dollar. In other words, the rising price of gold is correlated inversely to the US dollar’s actual purchasing power loss.

Specifically, this means that a higher gold price occurs after the effects of inflation have settled in and taken their toll – not before and not in anticipation of those effects.

Let’s be very clear about something: gold’s higher price in dollars at any time NEVER represents an increase in gold’s value and is ALWAYS indicative of dollar weakness that has already occurred.

Gold’s value is constant and unchanging. That is why gold is the perfect money. Gold is original money and a long-term store of value. (see Only One Fundamental For Gold)

GOLD – NOTHING LESS 

Just as much as it is true that people focus on gold when its price is rising, they tend to ignore and disregard it when the price is declining. They become downright disinterested over longer periods when, in their words, “it isn’t doing anything”.

We are currently seeing some negative response to gold’s “failure to respond” to fundamentals and as a result of gold’s price not meeting or exceeding its expectations.

A similar thing happened after gold peaked in 1980. Many people were convinced that the dollar would be decimated by runaway inflation and that the price of gold would move well beyond $1000 oz (it peaked briefly at $850 oz.).

As the years passed, discouragement found a home and eventually apathy reigned. The effects of inflation became less and less of an obvious issue. Also, the stock market was rising rapidly and the economy was booming.

After twenty years gold was under $300 oz and as low as $250 oz.  It was not uncommon to hear things like “gold is dead” and “who needs gold?”

This was another example of most people’s misunderstanding about gold’s value. Its price had dropped considerably so the inference of a “loss in value” and a “bad investment” were assumed.

However, all during 1980-2000 the US dollar was stable or stronger. With the apparent effects of inflation on the wane, the US dollar found favor on a world-wide basis.

Periods of rising gold prices and a weaker dollar contrasts with other periods of declining gold prices and a stable or stronger US dollar. See the chart below…

 

There are five major turning points for gold’s price that are reflected on the chart. All five  turning points (1933, 1971, 1980, 2000, 2011) coincided with major turning points in the US dollar.

Gold is priced in US dollars and since the US dollar is in a state of perpetual decline, the US dollar price of gold will continue to rise over time.

There are periodic changes in US dollar valuations and these changes can last for years, such as 1980-2000 and 2011-2016. During such periods the price of gold can and does decline considerably. We are seemingly in such a period now.

Over the past year and one-half the price of gold has declined reflecting strength and stability in the US dollar. To what extent the decline continues depends on how the US dollar fares.

GOLD – NOTHING ELSE

Whenever I am asked about gold, I preface my remarks by stating that gold is not an investment. Most usually take exception to that proclamation. Some even get angry.

Nevertheless, it is true. Gold is not an investment; nor, is it a hedge against inflation. In fact, even gold is subject to inflation.

Gold’s price is not Influenced by political instability, social unrest, insurrection or war. It does not change in price or value due to headline economic statistics or a weak economy.

Gold is not correlated in any manner to interest rates, the stock market, inflation expectations, etc.

The ONLY reason for the higher price of gold over time is continual loss in purchasing power in the US dollar – nothing else. 

CONCLUSION – 

Believing in false fundamentals leads to unrealistic expectations. Those unrealistic expectations usually end in disillusionment; and they can be accompanied by financial loss.

As far as gold is concerned the entire precious metals arena is awash in proclamations and predictions that have no real fundamental basis.

(also see: The Gold Price And Inflation)

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!

Gold Has Lots Of Potential Downside

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GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE

Over the past year, the price of gold has made repeated attempts to move higher. Looking at a one-year price history of GLD in the chart (source) below, there is  a series of progressively lower highs which seems to indicate staunch resistance to higher gold prices…

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Even Gold Is Subject To Inflation

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Yes, even gold is subject to inflation.

Most gold bugs think that a gold standard will solve our inflation problems. While it is true that gold acts as a restraint on governments’ and central banks’ desire to create and control money, it does not mean that inflation cannot happen just because gold is the money in circulation. The United States and most of the rest of the world, at one time or other, operated on a gold standard. In other words, gold was the money of choice.

Since gold cannot be fabricated (fabricate – to invent or concoct (something), typically with deceitful intent) into existence, the debasement of the money supply cannot be accomplished with the same ease as central banks enjoy today.

Several centuries ago, independent rulers might clip coins and melt the clippings down, recasting them in the usual fashion. This meant that there were coins with lesser metal content circulating with other coins that had not been altered. All were presumed to be of equal value.

Gradually, people became more aware of what was by then obvious – the two types of coins in circulation were not of equal value.

Also, there were more coins in circulation. The total money supply had increased considerably and the effects of inflation were apparent. Higher prices for most goods and services were taking their toll.

In order to allay the fears and suspicions of the general population, the rulers turned to dilution. All coins were cast and issued with a lesser proportion of precious metal (gold or silver) and a larger percentage of base metal (copper, nickel, etc).

The coins appeared to be identical, but further inflation was easier now; just reduce the precious metal content and increase the content of base metal in each coin. (see History Of Gold As Money)

GOLD, INFLATION, AND MANSA MUSA

Mansa Musa is considered by some historians to be the single most wealthy individual in history and his wealth is estimated to be the inflation-adjusted equivalent of four hundred billion US dollars in today’s money.

The following is from Wikipedia:

Musa made his pilgrimage (to Mecca) between 1324–1325. His procession reportedly included 60,000 men, including 12,000 slaves who each carried 4 lb (1.8 kg) of gold bars and heralds dressed in silks who bore gold staffs, organized horses, and handled bags. Musa provided all necessities for the procession, feeding the entire company of men and animals. Those animals included 80 camels which each carried 50–300 lb (23–136 kg) of gold dust. Musa gave the gold to the poor he met along his route. Musa not only gave to the cities he passed on the way to Mecca, including Cairo and Medina, but also traded gold for souvenirs. It was reported that he built a mosque every Friday. 

But Musa’s generous actions inadvertently devastated the economy of the regions through which he passed. In the cities of Cairo, Medina, and Mecca, the sudden influx of gold devalued the metal for the next decade. Prices on goods and wares greatly inflated. To rectify the gold market, on his way back from Mecca, Musa borrowed all the gold he could carry from money-lenders in Cairo, at high interest. This is the only time recorded in history that one man directly controlled the price of gold in the Mediterranean.

The “sudden influx of gold” constituted an increase in the supply of money which resulted in “prices on goods and wares greatly inflated”.  This is a classic, historical example of inflation.

The economies of the regions that Musa visited were relatively industrious with a reasonably stable economy.  And the gold which Musa carried with him was not, for the most part, circulating as part of the money supply in the world at that time. In a short period of time, large amounts of gold (i.e. money) were put in circulation.  With more money available, more aggressive bidding for various “goods and wares” drove prices for those items higher.

The ‘higher prices’ for goods and wares was an inverse reflection of the loss of purchasing power of the money (gold) in circulation.

Gold is not immune to inflation. This is not an indictment of gold. But it does serve to illustrate the vulnerability of money regarding the consequences of inflation.

Mansa Musa acted benevolently as an individual. His actions and the effects were basically a one-time event.

On the other hand, inflation, as practiced by the United States Government and the Federal Reserve, is intentional and perpetual – over one hundred years old and still going strong.  The effects of those efforts are unpredictable and volatile. And the value of our money continues to erode.

Whereas Musa acted immediately to help alleviate the problem that his actions created by borrowing “all the gold he could carry from money-lenders in Cairo, at high interest”, the Federal Reserve purposely inflicts harm on the monetary system by continually expanding the supply of money and credit.  This distorts every monetary measure of value we are inclined to rely on, and at some point, the system will implode.

The problems arising from Musa’s actions were systemic and not related to the ‘form’ of money in use.  And those problems were limited because the money supply was limited.  No one could produce more money (i.e., gold) by printing it.

That is why governments hate gold. It is a restraint on their free-spending, expansionary policies. Even the example of Mansa Musa does not diminish the role gold plays in this regard, or its rightful place as real money, original money. (also see The Gold Price And Inflation)

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!

 

Gold Is Not An Investment; Not An Inflation Hedge

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WHAT GOLD IS NOT

After reading recent articles by others and listening to what continues to pass as ‘fundamentals for gold’, I think it might be helpful to restate, and elaborate on, two specific things which gold is not…

  1. Gold is not an investment.
  2. Gold is not a hedge against inflation. 

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Gold Is Cheaper Now Than In 1980

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GOLD IS CHEAPER NOW 

Most investors and others who follow the gold market are aware that gold peaked in January 1980 at $850 oz.

Gold is currently priced at $1772 oz., somewhat lower than its peak in August 2020 at $2060 oz.  In either case, the gold price has increased considerably since 1980.

After forty years, though, one might be inclined to ask in all sincerity “Is that all there is?”

The question has merit. In inflation-adjusted terms, gold is actually cheaper today at $1772 oz. by twenty-three percent compared to it’s high in January 1980 at $850 oz. 

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Gold Facts And Fundamentals

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GOLD FACTS AND FUNDAMENTALS…

After the gold price  reached a high of $850 oz.  in 1980, its price began a long decline that lasted over twenty years. But the decline was not just characterized by its lower price, which eventually bottomed around $250 oz.

More noteworthy was the lack of interest in the yellow metal, which continued for almost twenty-five years.

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Gold Going Nowhere Slowly

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“Gold going nowhere” seems to be a reasonable description of recent price action in the metals markets.

Below is a daily chart of GLD for the past year…

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The Gold Price And Inflation

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An understanding of the relationship between between the gold price and inflation requires historical observation and factual understanding. Below are three specific statements that are rooted in historical fact…

1)  GOLD IS REAL MONEY

Lots of things have been used as money during five thousand years of recorded history.  Only gold has stood the test of time. It has earned its role as real money because it is the only thing which meets the three specific criteria for money: a measure of value, a medium of exchange, and a store of value.

Gold is and has been easily incorporated into recognizable forms and amounts for use within various standards of weight and measure. Also, gold is scarce, malleable, indestructible and beautiful.

2) PAPER CURRENCIES ARE SUBSTITUTES FOR REAL MONEY

Gold is also original money. It is the original measure of value for everything else.

A medium of exchange needs to be portable, which gold certainly is. Gold is and has been easily incorporated into recognizable forms and amounts for use within various standards of weight and measure.

Gold was stored in warehouses and the owners were issued receipts which reflected ownership and title to the gold on deposit. The receipts were bearer instruments that were negotiable for trade and exchange. Some consider these negotiable receipts to be a precursor to our modern checking system.

3) INFLATION IS CAUSED BY GOVERNMENT

One thing that should be clear from history is that governments destroy money. Inflation is the debasement of money by government. It is practiced intentionally by governments and central banks.

The effects of inflation are volatile and unpredictable. The Federal Reserve Bank of The United States has managed to destroy the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar little by little over the past century. The result is a dollar that is worth ninety-nine percent less than in 1913.

MORE ALWAYS EQUALS LESS

When the Fed began its grand experiment, the price of gold was fixed and convertible at the rate of $20.67 per ounce. This fixed rate of exchange was supposed to act as a restraint on government to keep them from creating excess dollars to meet their spending needs.

Here is a historical example of how inflation was practiced with gold before the invention of the printing press and the advent of paper currencies…

“Early ruling monarchs would ‘clip’ small pieces of the coins they accumulated through taxes and other levies against their subjects.

The clipped pieces were melted down and fabricated into new coins. All of the coins were then returned to circulation. And all were assumed to be equal in value. As the process evolved, and more and more clipped coins showed up in circulation, people became more outwardly suspicious and concerned. Thus, the ruling powers began altering/reducing the precious metal content of the coins. This lowered the cost to fabricate and issue new coins. No need to clip the coins anymore.” (see Inflation – What It Is, What It Isn’t, And Who’s Responsible For It)

From the above example it is not hard to see how anything used as money could be altered in some way to satisfy the spending habits of government. But a process such as this was cumbersome and inconvenient.

Enter: Paper Money

With the advent of the printing press and continued improvements to the mechanics of replicating words and numbers in easily recognizable fashion, paper money became the “next big thing.”

At first, people viewed the new ‘money’ with skepticism. Coins with precious  metal content continued to circulate alongside the new paper money. Hence, it was necessary, at least initially, for government to maintain a link of some kind between money of known value vs. money of no value in order to encourage its use.

Eventually, that link was severed; partially at first, then completely. And it was done by fiat (a decree or order of government).

Not only does our money today have no intrinsic value, it is inflated and debased continually through subtle and more sophisticated ways such as fractional-reserve banking and credit expansion.

Government causes inflation by expanding the supply of money and credit.  And that expansion of the money supply cheapens the value of all the money.  Which is exactly why the US dollar continues to lose purchasing power.

EFFECTS OF INFLATION

The ongoing expansion of the supply of money and credit by governments and central banks IS inflation. 

This intentional debasement of money leads to a gradual loss in purchasing power of the US dollar.

The loss in purchasing power results in higher prices over time for most goods and services.(see “A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold” Revisited)

The loss in purchasing power and subsequent higher prices are the effects of inflation.

GOLD AND THE US DOLLAR

A declining U.S. dollar means a higher gold price. A stable or strengthening U.S. dollar results in a stable or lower gold price.

In other words, over time, a higher gold price is correlated inversely to the US dollar’s loss in purchasing power. 

When the gold price peaked last August at $2060 oz., it was one hundred times higher than its original fixed US dollar price of $20.67 oz. a century ago.  That indicates almost exactly the ninety-nine percent decline in US dollar purchasing power mentioned earlier and is indicative that gold is a store of value.

If you think the current effects of inflation are understated, that would mean the potential for a higher gold price is implied. Except…

The effects of inflation are unpredictable. And a higher gold price is predicated on seeing the actual price increases first.

The gold price doesn’t go up because people expect inflation to get worse. It only goes up to reflect the loss in US dollar purchasing power that has already occurred.

Furthermore, it can take years for the gold price to reflect any subsequent  loss in purchasing power (1980-2011; 2011-2021).

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!

New Fundamentals For Gold And Silver

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NEW FUNDAMENTALS FOR GOLD

When speaking of gold and silver, analysts and investors are always happy to share their viewpoints on the fundamentals for the two metals. Lately, the list of fundamentals seems to be growing.

When someone mentions housing starts and gold in the same sentence, it is indicative that analysis has become suspect, and the resultant observations are likely to be of little or no value.

Inferring correlative activity between gold and a host of other non-related items such as interest rates, social unrest, political turmoil, wars, existing home sales, retail sales, economic activity, etc., is confusing and unsupportable.

So-called fundamentals for gold are lumped into one big cauldron of boiling phrases and sayings. Investors can pick and choose which fundamental(s) suits them.

The definition of the term fundamental (noun) is  “a central or primary rule or principle on which something is based.”  

As regards gold and silver, each of them has one basic fundamental:

1) Gold is real money.
2) Silver is an industrial commodity.

Each of them has a secondary use that is similar to the primary fundamental of the other metal. Gold is real money, first and foremost, but it also has industrial applications. Silver is primarily an industrial commodity that has a secondary use as money.

The basic value of either gold or silver stems from its primary fundamental. This means that gold is valued for its role as real money and silver’s primary value stems from its use in industry. And the primary fundamental for each metal will always be the same, even though there can be changes in the relative relationship of primary and secondary uses.

For example, lets say that gold’s primary role as money accounts for 90% of its assumed value. The other 10% can be industrial uses, such as jewelry. If there is an increase in industrial demand for gold, as a result of increasing demand for its use in ornamentation and jewelry, the relative percentage in gold’s total demand increases. In other words, a possible new allocation might be 85% for monetary use and 15% for industrial use.

What is important to note, however, is that the total demand for gold does not change. The increase in industrial demand for gold supplants the investment demand. Also, whatever changes occur in the relative percentages will never alter the balance of the two in a material way or in a way that inverts the primary and secondary uses.

Primary demand for gold will always be for its use as money; and that value will always exceed any secondary applications in industry by a wide margin.

With silver, the example is similar, except that the industrial and monetary uses are reversed. Whatever changes or increases take place in silver’s use as money will supplant industrial demand by a like percentage. As with gold, the increase in its secondary use and valuation will never override its primary use. Silver will always be valued primarily for its use in industry – not for its use as money.

PRICE CONSCIOUS INVESTORS 

Even if most investors and analysts understood these things (they don’t), then they likely would ignore them – because they are boring.

Investors are fickle and price conscious. Most of them are not interested in value. They want to know when the price of something is going up, by how much, and why. The ‘why’ is mostly an after thought. Usually, ‘why’ enters the conversation after the price goes down when it was expected to go up.

That is when investors and their advisors start talking a lot about fundamentals. Since the fundamentals they talk about don’t apply to gold and silver, whatever logic they use is faulty because it is based on incorrect assumptions. This leads to unrealistic expectations.

Negative news in the headlines seems to be a reason to buy gold. A recent headline even proclaimed “bad news is good news for gold”. Apparently, some investors are thinking and acting with that statement in mind. Unfortunately, simultaneous events do not prove correlation.

So how do we explain gold’s price changes according to its fundamental above?
Gold is not just real money. It is original money. Gold was money before the US dollar. Its value is constant and unchanging. It is the ultimate store of value.

Gold is the measure of value for everything else. Everything else is assessed a value based on its price in gold – in grams, kilos, ounces, and fractional units of such.

This seems backwards to most of us because we are used to valuing things in terms of their price in dollars, or any other currency. But if we learn to understand it, we can better understand the following:

The rising price of gold in dollars does not mean that gold’s value is increasing; rather, it signifies a correlative loss in the purchasing power of the US dollar.

That brings us back to gold’s only fundamental: gold is real money. Anything else is a substitute.

In other words, NOTHING ELSE OTHER THAN THE US DOLLAR IS A DETERMINING FACTOR IN THE PRICE OF GOLD.

What we have said about gold, however, does not apply to silver. Silver is primarily an industrial commodity; and its price in dollars is mostly a reflection of its use in industry rather than its use as money.

Slowdowns in economic activity lead to declines in industrial demand. This is reflected by lower prices for industrial commodities, like silver. In fact, during every recession in the last fifty years – seven of them – the price of silver declined. (see: Prospecting For Silver During Recessions)

(note: silver’s price swoon in March-April 2020 at the onset of the current recession brings the number to eight)

As far as silver’s role as money is concerned, silver has not come close to replicating gold’s increasing price over time.

GOLD PRICE ANALYSIS

The US dollar has lost somewhere between 98-99% of its purchasing power over the past one hundred years.

When the gold price hit $2060 oz. last August, it was a one hundred-fold increase over the past century and represented a ninety-nine percent loss in US dollar purchasing power.

In inflation-adjusted terms, $2060 oz. in August 2020 is nearly identical to $1895 oz. in August 2011. Both peaks equate similarly to a ninety-nine percent loss in US dollar purchasing power.

The increase in the US dollar price of gold from one peak to the next (Aug 2011-Aug 2020) represents the actual purchasing power that was lost in those intervening nine years. 

Approximately midway between the two price peaks, the gold price bottomed at $1040 oz. in January 2016. This was a fifty-fold increase and reflected a ninety-eight percent loss in US dollar purchasing power.

TARNISHED SILVER

Whereas, gold’s price currently is eighty-five times higher than its original fixed price of $20.67 and indicates a nearly ninety-nine percent loss in US dollar purchasing power, silver’s price has risen only seventeen fold ($22.40 oz. divided by $1.29) over the same one hundred years.

In fact, in inflation-adjusted terms, silver is cheaper today than it was at $4.00 oz. in January 1974. (see: Silver Is Cheap And Getting Cheaper)

CONCLUSION

Many of the analyses about gold and silver are factually incorrect. They are lacking in fundamental support and have no historical precedent.

The logic used is faulty because it is based on incorrect assumptions. All of this leads to unrealistic expectations.

The expectations for a moonshot price trajectory, for either gold or silver, are wishful thinking. And to the extent they occur, they will be accompanied by conditions that negate the expected positive benefits (see: Gold’s Not An Investment – You Won’t Get Rich and Silver Fails Miserably To Meet Expectations)

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!

 

Betting On Gold?

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If you are betting on gold, you may be in for some tough sledding. Below is a 5-year chart of the yellow metal updated through Sep 3, 2021…

The final posted price as of September 3rd is $1831 oz.

The Labor Day weekend gave gold investors three days to prime themselves for the anticipated price launch. Then, Tuesday happened.

By the end of the day, Sep 7th, gold was down more than $30 oz. and had reversed all of its gains from Friday September 3rd and more. The spot price closed below $1800 oz. for the first time in over one month.

It was a decidedly harsh jolt to anyone expecting a follow through from last Friday’s action and the potential implications are disturbing. Below is another chart. This one is a ten-day chart for GLD…

The chart above is admittedly very short-term in nature, but it is clear that Tuesday’s break in the gold price was swift and consequential.

Some additional perspective might help. Looking back at the first chart, it appears that the gold price has now broken below a clearly defined uptrend line of support dating back to 2018.

A possible near-term target for a move downward is $1500 oz. and there doesn’t appear to be much support before that.

After that there is considerable previous price action between $1300 and $1500 oz., so gold might find a stopping point somewhere within that range.

It is not unreasonable to expect this before the end of this year.

Kelsey Williams is the author of two books: INFLATION, WHAT IT IS, WHAT IT ISN’T, AND WHO’S RESPONSIBLE FOR IT and ALL HAIL THE FED!